The Trailer: Five things to watch this primary day

It’s primary day in seven states! Here are five things to watch: 

#1: Few or no challenges for high-profile GOP governors: 

Toppling a sitting governor is one of the hardest things to do in politics. And Tuesday marks the start of some high-profile governor reelections, and little evidence they’re in danger.

In South Dakota, Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R) became a national figure during the pandemic for resisting restrictions. She has just one nominal primary challenger, far-right state Rep. Steve Haugaard (R), who is challenging her in part over her veto of legislation banning transgender women from playing in women’s high school sports. (A rare deviation for Noem from the hard right.) 

The top state House Democrat, Jamie Smith, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination against Noem. Smith is the party’s biggest-name contender since Democrats came within three points of defeating Noem in 2018. But he has yet to prove he can seriously challenge Noem, and as a Black Hills Pioneer columnist points out, Republicans have won every governor’s race in the state since 1978. Noem’s expected strong reelection could set her up to run for president soon.

Meanwhile, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) faces no primary opposition on Tuesday — and no big-name Democratic opposition in November as she seeks a second term. (Top Democrats passed on challenging her.)

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who survived a recall effort last year, faces 25 challengers on the ballot. (A reminder that in California, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will be on the ballot in November.) But Newsom has no reason to expect to feel vulnerable again, with polling in the state showing him strongly ahead of all his primary challengers.

The exception to this pattern could be in New Mexico, where Republicans are trying to prevent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) from winning a second term. On Tuesday, they’ll hold a primary to chose their nominee. According to the Cook Political Report, longtime local meteorologist Mark Ronchetti  — who ran and lost for Senate in 2020 — is the favorite to win Tuesday’s primary against several other candidates. Looking ahead to November, such a Republican-friendly environment nationally could make this race competitive. 

#2: In California: The fate of a Republican who voted to impeach Trump: 

Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob, just six are running for reelection. In California, Rep. David G. Valadao (R) is one of them. “His inciting rhetoric was un-American, abhorrent, and absolutely an impeachable offense,” Valadao said at the time, speaking of Trump. Valadao is facing a primary challenger on the right because of his impeachment vote. But unlike other House Republicans who turned against Trump, Valadao has the support of House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, whose district is nearby. 

Valadao’s central California district was redrawn this year to become slightly friendlier to Democrats. And California’s primary system means that local Democratic politician Rudy Salas could advance alongside Valadao to the general election, instead of his impeachment challenger. 

#3: Also in California: Another test of Trump’s endorsement power: 

Another California congressional race presents a much lower-profile test of Trump’s endorsement power than some of last month’s primaries, such as Georgia’s. But once again, Trump has gone against local Republicans in a primary. For an open seat outside Sacramento, Trump has endorsed a polished local Republican, Kevin Kiley. More traditional Republicans in the area favor the local sheriff, Scott Jones. (Kiley challenged Newsom in a recall last year.) It’s likely that only one of these Republicans will advance to the November election, given that Democrats have Kermit Jones, a veteran of the Iraq War, who is likely to get enough votes to get on November’s ballot.

#4: Democrats’ political struggles on crime: 

Local Democrats are struggling with how to respond to rising crime rates — high crime is happening in both red and blue states, but Democrats, for one reason or another, seem to be on the defensive more than Republicans this election cycle for it. Rising crime in San Francisco could lead to the ousting on Tuesday of that city’s district attorney, Chesa Boudin.

A new poll on the other side of the country, in New York City, shows that Mayor Eric Adams (D) has large scale disapproval of the job he’s doing, particularly on fighting crime. Siena College shows that just 29 percent say the former police captain is doing an excellent or good job, while 64 percent say he’s doing only a fair or poor job. His negatives are particularly high for fighting crime — 74 percent — and addressing homelessness — 76 percent. 

Adams’ campaigned as a no-nonsense former police officer who would focus on public safety. President Biden, who is trying to steer the Democratic Party more to the center on public safety, visited Adams this winter as an apparent example of how the party should be talking about fighting crime and supporting police. Yet his approval image has plummeted since he took office in January, as he tries to strike a moderate political approach that’s upsetting liberals.

Another Tuesday primary where crime has been an issue: The Los Angeles mayoral race, where billionaire Rick Caruso, a former Republican, has been offering tough talk on crime. 

#5: Montana: An embattled former Trump Cabinet secretary runs for Congress: 

In 2018, Trump pressured Ryan Zinke to resign as Interior Secretary just two years into the job after a series of high-profile ethics violations. Now that Montana gets a new U.S. House seat because of population growth — for a total of two — Zinke is back. He is the top Republican candidate for this new congressional seat, and he’s running with Trump’s endorsement. Zinke will likely face Democrat and first-time candidate Cora Neumann in November. Even with Zinke’s controversial political background, Western Montana is Trump country, and he is favored to win.

Reading list

“Tuesday primaries test Democrats on crime, GOP on electability, Trump,” by Hannah Knowles and Annie Linskey

“Democrats, for some reason tend to take a bit longer than their Republican counterparts to wake up to political realities.”

“During Watergate, John Mitchell left his wife. She called Bob Woodward,” by Manuel Roig-Franzia

Fifty years after Watergate, a look at how a famous Washington wife helped take down her husband, Nixon’s former attorney general: “Please nail him. I hope you get the bastard.”

“Louisiana lawmakers must redraw maps, come up with second majority-minority district,” by Mark Ballard and Sam Karin

Exhibit A of why Democrats appeal to the courts in redistricting when they’re outpowered by the legislature.

“Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett begins transition to replace Eddie Bernice Johnson in Congress,” by Grommers Jeffers Jr.

“I don’t know if there will be another Black woman who goes down to the statehouse, does a freshman term, and then goes to the U.S. House.” 

“With unprecedented spending, Caruso is everywhere. Can the billionaire become overexposed?” by James Rainey

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, a look at the downside of being a billionaire. 

“Georgia voting touch screens pose cybersecurity risk,” By Mark Niesse

Hackers could flip votes if they were able to break into these voting machines. 

What I’m watching

What’s the deal with John Fetterman? 

Who he is: He is trying to help Democrats keep control of the U.S. Senate in November by winning the Pennsylvania seat being vacated by Sen. Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican. He is the state’s lieutenant governor, and he easily won the Democratic primary last month. He will face Trump-backed Republican candidate Mehmet Oz (better known as Dr. Oz) in November.

Why he’s in the news: Pennsylvania is an important race for control of the Senate, and Fetterman is a unique candidate for Democrats: He’s 6-foot-9, bald and campaigns in a hoodie and gym shorts. He’s a Bernie Sanders supporter who stumps in rural, pro-Trump communities.

But his campaign has been overshadowed by serious questions about his health. He said he “almost died” from a stroke just days before the primary, and he is still recovering. On primary day, he announced he was getting surgery as a result of a heart condition. The campaign has since explained the underlying condition is much more serious than it first revealed, The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer and Hannah Knowles reported.

Fetterman, whom advisers tout as an “authentic, straight-talking, no-B.S. populist,” may have damaged his credibility by not being fully upfront with voters about his health, some Democrats worry. This Senate race is thought to be one of the best opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat this midterm season, so the controversy over Fetterman’s changing health-scare story is particularly concerning to his party.

… 4 days until the special House primary in Alaska

… 7 days until primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Dakota, and the special election in Texas’s 34th Congressional District 

… 14 days until primaries in Virginia and runoffs in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia

2022 Election Calendar