More than a new government, Peru needs one that can last

Indeed, on a continent poisoned by revanchism and polarization, Castillo pulled off something remarkable: uniting the entire country — against him. Compatriots on the left, right and center rallied to reject his ham-fisted coup attempt. Neither the police nor the armed forces joint chiefs, nor his own left-wing coalition, came to his rescue. By the time congress weighed in on Wednesday, only six lawmakers backed Castillo’s autocratic gambit against the 101 who voted for his removal.

For the fifth time in two years, Peru has a new leader: former vice president Dina Boluarte. What the country needs more than a fresh face, however, is basic stability. And that will require strengthening governing institutions and overhauling one of Latin America’s most dysfunctional party systems.

Across Latin America, sitting presidents — facing rising food prices, stubborn inequality and still-torpid post-pandemic economies — have taken a beating. In Chile, former student radical Gabriel Boric surged to office on a swell of demands for a total reset only to fall into ignominy after voters in September turned down the unworkable new constitution he championed. In October, Brazilian populist Jair Bolsonaro became the first incumbent since the return of democracy to lose reelection.

Castillo added fecklessness and stubborn personalism to the radical mix. A former school teacher and union organizer who had never held elected office, he won the presidency by a razor’s margin. Yet rather than create a consensus, he built a bunker. Relying on a personal touch instead of institutional politics and confidants instead of competency, he cycled through a new minister every week. None of his four mining ministers managed to strike a deal with militant unions, pitching one of the country’s most vital economic sectors into serial crises. Agricultural authorities failed to anticipate shortages of imported fertilizer in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that ruined prospects for staple crops such as onions and potatoes.

Peru is no stranger to contrarian politics. Charismatic leaders have repeatedly tapped public rejection of the country’s traditional parties to break legislative deadlocks, often to popular acclaim. No one played the populist card better than Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), who leveraged fears of civil unrest to close congress and rule with an iron hand — democratic liberties and human rights be damned. Despite the brutality for which Fujimori was later convicted and jailed, many Peruvians applauded his 1992 self-coup as a necessary move to prevent an insurrection. Peru’s political party system was collateral damage.

Castillo attempted the same stunt for no apparent motive other than to cling to power. But Peru’s problem with democracy goes beyond him. With at least 18 parties fielding candidates since 1980, presidential elections are cacophonous, and the marginally louder faction generally prevails.

Castillo advanced to the presidential runoff last year with just 18.9 percent of the popular vote, while his closest rival, Keiko Fujimori, garnered a little over 13 percent. Castillo beat Fujimori in the second round by only 44,000 votes out of 19 million cast, and his party controlled barely 12 percent of the 130-seat Congress. It was a recipe for instability.

To salvage governability in Latin America’s fourth largest democracy, Peru needs stronger institutions and sturdier checks and balances.

One problem has been the country’s unicameral legislature, which is clubby and prone to overreach. It would help to create a senate to provide balance and assure order. Another measure would be to revoke the ban on reelecting lawmakers — a misguided rule that deprives congress of more experienced representatives. Without institutional fixes like these, political instability will only worsen. “Right now Peruvian democracy is in intensive care,” Nicolás Saldías of the Economist Intelligence Unit told me. “It won’t take much for another popular authoritarian to take the reins.”

Whether Boluarte understands this is unclear. After being sworn in on Wednesday, she vowed to complete Castillo’s term, which lasts until 2026, only to backpedal two days later to say she would “be open” to discussing new elections. The nation’s turbulent politics could use a thorough reset. Anything less will only further weaken Peru’s democracy and keep the country’s highest office on a revolving door.