Iowa offers DeSantis early opportunity to knock down Trump

Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is announcing his candidacy this week for the Republican presidential nomination, will need to quickly prove he’s a formidable opponent against frontrunner and former president Donald Trump.

Iowa and its base of evangelical voters may offer the best opportunity for Mr. DeSantis to land a damaging punch against Mr. Trump, who has built an enormous lead over all of his GOP opponents in national polls while aggressively attacking the Florida governor as a weak opponent.

Mr. Trump last week may have helped Mr. DeSantis gain support in Iowa when he criticized as “too harsh” the Florida law signed recently by the governor banning abortion after six weeks. Mr. Trump, in an interview with The Messenger, said “many people in the pro-life movement” felt the six-week ban was excessive.  

Pro-life voters in the Hawkeye State, who in the past made up the majority of all GOP Iowa Caucus voters, were listening. And frowning.

“No, Mr. former President, many in the ProLife community do not believe saving babies is too harsh,” tweeted Bob Vander Plaats, head of The Family Leader, a leading Christian organization in the state. “The Iowa Caucus door just flung wide open.”

The still-developing GOP primary calendar lists Iowa as the nation’s first presidential primary contest. While the Jan. 8 date set for the GOP Iowa Caucus is tentative, the state is likely to offer the very first face-off between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis.

“It would be huge if DeSantis beat him,” said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines.

A big win in Iowa, or even “landing within shouting distance,” of Mr. Trump, would help propel Mr. DeSantis to pick up momentum in the next critical primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Mr. Goldford said.

“But if Trump just stomps him 2-1, or something like that, then DeSantis is in trouble,” he said. 

Mr. Trump lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas Republican, who ran to the right of him and captured the backing of the state’s evangelical vote.

This time around, it’s Mr. DeSantis’s unapologetic support for ending abortion that is endearing him with Iowa’s evangelical, pro-life voters who made up more than two-thirds of GOP voters who turned out in 2016.

Not only do they align with Mr. DeSantis on prohibiting abortion, they side with him on social issues, including his decision to sign laws banning the teaching of LGBTQ issues in public schools and prohibiting biological males from participating in girls sports or using female public locker rooms or restrooms.

Mr. Goldford said Mr Trump remains extremely popular among Iowa voters and can tout his appointment of the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion.

But many evangelicals are willing to consider alternatives, particularly those voters who may have tired of Mr. Trump’s brash personality and trail of legal troubles.

Mr. DeSantis, who has built a national reputation rejecting Covid mandates and the “woke” liberal agenda on social issues, offers a tantalizing alternative for Iowa Caucus GOP voters. In early spring, he nearly tied Mr. Trump in some Iowa polls and surpassed him in others, while trouncing a list of other Republican candidates. 

The most recent Iowa poll, released May 12 by American Greatness, found Mr. Trump leading Mr. DeSantis by 18 percentage points, which shows a much closer race than the average of polls that give Mr. Trump a 37-point advantage.

When it comes to pro-life voters, Mr. DeSantis has set himself apart not only from Mr. Trump, but from other candidates who are trailing him but who could chip away at his support among GOP voters in Iowa.  Former U.S Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley has not backed a ban on abortion at any specific time of gestation and called for a “national consensus” on the issue, while Sen. Tim Scott, a South Carolina Republican who jumped into the race Monday, has already stumbled on defining where he stands on banning the procedure. Mr. Scott said he backs a 20-week abortion ban at the federal level but has been vague about whether he backs stricter limits sought by many in the pro-life movement.

Mr. DeSantis has made two trips to Iowa, most recently last week, when he flipped burgers and shook hands with voters at a fundraising picnic in Sioux Center in the conservative northwest part of the state. 

While in Iowa, Mr. DeSantis rolled out dozens of endorsements from state Republicans.

“The Republican primary is already a two-man race, and Governor DeSantis isn’t even a candidate,” said Erin Perrine, the spokeswoman for the DeSantis-aligned PAC, Never Back Down. “As we saw at his recent visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, there is growing momentum behind the governor because he is the only Republican who doesn’t just talk the talk, he follows through on the hard fights like taking on woke corporations. The choice couldn’t be clearer for primary voters. While Donald Trump may talk a big game, DeSantis actually fights and wins.”

Mr. Trump called Mr. DeSantis “totally unelectable” on Monday as he welcomed Mr. Scott to the race.

Mr. DeSantis attacked Mr. Trump on the abortion issue at a bill signing ceremony last week, saying nearly everyone in the pro-life movement backs a ban on abortions after six weeks, which is when a fetal heartbeat is typically detected.

“The Legislature put it in, I signed the bill, I was proud to do it,” Mr. DeSantis said. “He won’t answer whether he would sign it or not.”